National Academies Endorse Draft Climate Assessment Despite Political Tensions

Compiled by the editorial desk with reference to official statements, public filings, and scientific reports.

On March 12, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, an independent body that advises the federal government on scientific matters, issued a review of the draft of the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4). The assessment, compiled by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), is a congressionally mandated report that evaluates the current and projected effects of climate change across the United States.

The review committee concluded that the draft provides an accurate and comprehensive description of climate change and its enduring consequences. This endorsement comes at a time when the administration has repeatedly questioned the scientific consensus on global warming, a stance that led to the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2017.

The NCA4 draft builds on the findings of the 2017 Climate Science Special Report, which stated that it is "extremely likely" that human activities, particularly greenhouse gas emissions, are the dominant cause of the warming observed since the mid-20th century. That earlier report was also produced under the USGCRP and served as a foundation for the current assessment.

According to The Washington Post, the draft places particular emphasis on the vulnerability of coastal regions. It notes that accelerating coastal flooding and erosion are worsening preexisting social inequities, as communities grapple with questions about who will bear the costs of current impacts and future adaptation measures, and whether, how, or when to relocate vulnerable populations. The report reads, "As the pace of coastal flooding and erosion accelerates, climate impacts along our coasts are exacerbating preexisting social inequities as communities face difficult questions on determining who will pay for current impacts and future adaptation strategies and if, how, or when to relocate vulnerable communities."

Scientists involved in the assessment had initially expressed concerns that the Trump administration might intervene or block the report's release, given its contradiction of the president's climate change views. However, the draft was released as intended, marking a significant step for the scientific community.

Review Committee Calls for Broader Accessibility

The review committee also recommended improvements to the report's presentation, aiming to make key information more accessible to a wider audience. This includes highlighting advances made since the last National Climate Assessment was published in 2014. Daniel Cayan, a professor at the University of California at San Diego and a member of the review committee, told The Washington Post, "There's a tremendous interest and demand for updated information and also examples of how various communities are approaching climate issues. So, I believe that there's a community of consumers that really are depending on the National Climate Assessment, and I would be very surprised if it does not continue and it is not sustained."

The final version of the NCA4 is slated for release later this year. The assessment is expected to serve as a critical resource for policymakers, researchers, and communities planning for climate resilience. The endorsement by the National Academies adds a layer of scientific authority to the findings, which are based on a synthesis of peer-reviewed research and federal data.

While the political landscape remains contentious, the release of the draft and the positive review signal that the scientific process continues to function, providing the public and decision-makers with essential information about the changing climate and its implications for the nation.